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Will AbbVie's Immunology Drugs Continue to Drive Q3 Earnings?
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AbbVie’s (ABBV - Free Report) third-quarter revenues are likely to be driven by revenues generated from the sales of its immunology and aesthetic products. The company generates more than half of its revenues from these two portfolios.
A major portion of the company’s revenues is generated from its immunology franchise, consisting of three blockbuster drugs — Humira, Rinvoq and Skyrizi. Humira is AbbVie’s flagship product and accounts for more than one-third of the company’s total revenues. We expect the company’s flagship drug Humira to register strong growth in the United States, which is more than likely to offset the downward trend in the drug’s international sales due to generic erosion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. sales of Humira is pegged at $4.93 billion, while that for international sales is $615 million. Our model estimates Humira U.S. sales to stand at $4.98 billion, while ex-U.S. sales are expected at around $649 million.
AbbVie’s stock has gained 10.7% in the year compared with an increase of 0.1% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The robust sequential revenue growth for new immunology drugs — Skyrizi and Rinvoq — is likely to have continued in the third quarter of 2022. The rise in sales is likely due to label expansions of both drugs to include new patient populations in the last few quarters. During the third quarter, Rinvoq received label expansions in European Union in ulcerative colitis and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis indications.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales in the third quarter is pegged at $726 million and $1.26 billion, respectively. Our model estimates Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales to be pegged at $738 million and $1.06 billion, respectively.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect Botox sales to rise due to increased product demand, while Juvederm sales are projected to register a lower sales growth. The company’s suspension of its aesthetics business operations in Russia, which is a key market for fillers, is likely responsible for this lower international Juvederm sales growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for aesthetic products are pegged at $1.42 billion and $1.46 billion.
U.S. sales growth of key oncology medicine, Imbruvica — developed in partnership with J&J (JNJ - Free Report) — is hurt by increased competition from novel oral therapies. Per J&J’s third-quarter earnings, Imbruvica sales declined 14.6%. However, strong demand for the J&J-partnered drug in the international market is likely to have aided sales of the drug during the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts global drug sales at $1.17 billion, including ex-U.S. sales of $279 million.
We expect the sales of another oncology drug, Venclexta — developed in collaboration with Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) — are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the Roche-partnered drug are pegged at $613 million and $636 million, respectively.
Sales of the company’s neuroscience franchise are expected to have been driven by Vraylar and Botox. The new migraine drugs, Qulipta and Ubrelvy, are expected to generate additional sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the neuroscience franchise stands at $1.82 billion, while our estimates for the franchise are pegged at $1.79 billion.
In the past 30 days, estimates for ADC Therapeutics’ 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $2.06 to $2.05. During the same period, the loss estimates per share for 2023 have narrowed from $3.18 to $3.13. Shares of ADC Therapeutics have lost 77.0% in the year-to-date period.
Earnings of ADC Therapeutics beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a surprise of 42.74%, on average. In the last reported quarter, ADC Therapeutics’ earnings beat estimates by 24.0%.
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Will AbbVie's Immunology Drugs Continue to Drive Q3 Earnings?
AbbVie’s (ABBV - Free Report) third-quarter revenues are likely to be driven by revenues generated from the sales of its immunology and aesthetic products. The company generates more than half of its revenues from these two portfolios.
A major portion of the company’s revenues is generated from its immunology franchise, consisting of three blockbuster drugs — Humira, Rinvoq and Skyrizi. Humira is AbbVie’s flagship product and accounts for more than one-third of the company’s total revenues. We expect the company’s flagship drug Humira to register strong growth in the United States, which is more than likely to offset the downward trend in the drug’s international sales due to generic erosion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. sales of Humira is pegged at $4.93 billion, while that for international sales is $615 million. Our model estimates Humira U.S. sales to stand at $4.98 billion, while ex-U.S. sales are expected at around $649 million.
AbbVie’s stock has gained 10.7% in the year compared with an increase of 0.1% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The robust sequential revenue growth for new immunology drugs — Skyrizi and Rinvoq — is likely to have continued in the third quarter of 2022. The rise in sales is likely due to label expansions of both drugs to include new patient populations in the last few quarters. During the third quarter, Rinvoq received label expansions in European Union in ulcerative colitis and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis indications.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales in the third quarter is pegged at $726 million and $1.26 billion, respectively. Our model estimates Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales to be pegged at $738 million and $1.06 billion, respectively.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect Botox sales to rise due to increased product demand, while Juvederm sales are projected to register a lower sales growth. The company’s suspension of its aesthetics business operations in Russia, which is a key market for fillers, is likely responsible for this lower international Juvederm sales growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for aesthetic products are pegged at $1.42 billion and $1.46 billion.
U.S. sales growth of key oncology medicine, Imbruvica — developed in partnership with J&J (JNJ - Free Report) — is hurt by increased competition from novel oral therapies. Per J&J’s third-quarter earnings, Imbruvica sales declined 14.6%. However, strong demand for the J&J-partnered drug in the international market is likely to have aided sales of the drug during the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts global drug sales at $1.17 billion, including ex-U.S. sales of $279 million.
We expect the sales of another oncology drug, Venclexta — developed in collaboration with Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) — are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the Roche-partnered drug are pegged at $613 million and $636 million, respectively.
Sales of the company’s neuroscience franchise are expected to have been driven by Vraylar and Botox. The new migraine drugs, Qulipta and Ubrelvy, are expected to generate additional sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the neuroscience franchise stands at $1.82 billion, while our estimates for the franchise are pegged at $1.79 billion.
AbbVie Inc. Price and Consensus
AbbVie Inc. price-consensus-chart | AbbVie Inc. Quote
Zacks Rank & Stock to Consider
AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Another better-ranked stock in the overall healthcare sector is ADC Therapeutics (ADCT - Free Report) which sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the past 30 days, estimates for ADC Therapeutics’ 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $2.06 to $2.05. During the same period, the loss estimates per share for 2023 have narrowed from $3.18 to $3.13. Shares of ADC Therapeutics have lost 77.0% in the year-to-date period.
Earnings of ADC Therapeutics beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a surprise of 42.74%, on average. In the last reported quarter, ADC Therapeutics’ earnings beat estimates by 24.0%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.